Today Shoygu and Gerasimov demoted Surovikin, and put Gerasimov in charge of the operation in Ukraine, demoting their most competent senior commander and replacing him with an incompetent one. This is a story that has it all: infighting, power struggles, jealousy /1 https://t.co/yrhLN6qUwN

It’s hard to argue that Surovikin was demoted for cause. As commander, a "fixer" - he consolidated positions, used resources better, had Putin's ear, is popular among the troops, milbloggers, Kadryov, Wagner/mercenaries, got a lot of attention./2

Surovikin has not made strategy blunders on the battlefield like so many other Russian generals have. I do not believe MOD’s rationale that it is to generate greater resources. They may need more resources, but such a step is unnecessary. On what grounds was he demoted? /3 https://t.co/im9LkSA2bN

Putin appeared to be getting more realistic assessments from Surovikin, a change from when he was getting some other version of events from Shoygu-Gerasimov early on. /4 https://www.ft.com/content/fb611530-d9b9-4338-addb-7ca6b914f959

Contrast with Gerasimov and Shoygu’s command record for this war: it’s a flunk. They flunked it. They signed off on a secret plan, multiple bad assumptions, didn't tell the majority of their troops. led to big casualties and a partially broken force /5 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html

Under Shoygu and Gerasimov’s command, a large percentage of the Ground Forces and Airborne forces (equipment and personnel) were destroyed. Thousands of both are gone. This leadership is so negligent that it should have been grounds for dismissal in any normal system.. /6

..But they are loyal to Putin and the system so they were kept on. Gerasimov and Shoygu for months now have been sidelined from the main command of the operation. As criticism of them mounted from some quarters. /7 https://t.co/eUna1I1Xoh

Who can claim their leadership is competent after one year of this war? But, they are experienced players in Moscow. With this change, I view this as a power struggle that has resolved in favor of Shoygu/Gerasimov. So, where does this go from here? /8

With Gerasimov in charge, if this is indeed permanent, I think the possibly of the Russians asking their tired force to do something that it cannot handle rises exponentially. Gerasimov didn't push back in Feb 2022 and won't do it now. IDK if that is good or bad for Ukraine. /9

This move also puts pressure on Prigozhin and others who don't trust the MOD leaders anymore. Or they get in line quickly. Wagner has been hurling major insults at the MOD leadership lately. /10. https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-group-prigozhin-backs-video-cursing-russia-top-general-gerasimov-2022-12

I view this news like Shoygu's speech announcing the return of more divisions. Seniors in Moscow are clingingly fiercely to the status quo and also soviet past. Important to keep in mind that they default to looking inwards and backwards even when it leds them to poor outcomes/11

@WarintheFuture has an interesting look at Russian forces under Surovikin here. Let's see what Russian forces retain of these strategies, or if they try something else. /12 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russias-new-theory-victory

(And, as it turns out, the MOD Telegram was being shady a few weeks ago.) 12/ https://twitter.com/massdara/status/1609278029767016448?s=46&t=_MQrxtDGrzllS3K00Rt12g

TL:DR: Russians demoted their "fixer" commander in favor of Gerasimov, who last year agreed to and oversaw a debacle invasion plan that resulted in the partial destruction of their army. What? /END https://t.co/AvQ5QY9Jwo

And here’s a good thread from @MarkGaleotti https://twitter.com/markgaleotti/status/1613225252900966401