Mr. Q.
Mon Apr 26 09:35:45 +0000 2021

[THREAD] 1/ Focus on the attacks claimed by the Islamic State in the Central #Sahel region. Over the past two years, #ISGS has claimed 144 operations in the #LikpatoGourma area which borders Mali πŸ‡²πŸ‡±, Burkina Faso πŸ‡§πŸ‡« and Niger πŸ‡³πŸ‡ͺ. Far less attacks than it has actually conducted.

2/ Detail about the methodology: I have collected and analysed the data of every single attack claimed in all the issues of the Islamic State’s weekly magazine al-Naba’ published between 28/03/2019 and 15/04/2021. Data include targets, weapons used, spoils of war, geolocation.

3/ Among the 144 #ISGS claimed attacks, 62 were reportedly conducted in Burkina Faso πŸ‡§πŸ‡«, 59 in Mali πŸ‡²πŸ‡± and 23 in Niger πŸ‡³πŸ‡ͺ. Over the past twelve months, the number of attacks has been low but steady, with two peaks in July and October 2020.

4/ Since the start of the year, #ISGS has only claimed nine attacks, including six in Mali πŸ‡²πŸ‡±, two in Niger πŸ‡³πŸ‡ͺ and one in Burkina Faso πŸ‡§πŸ‡«. A figure far below the 107 attacks probably conducted by ISGS, as reported by the expert on the #Sahel @MENASTREAM.

5/ Even if the group tends to overstate the number of casualties, it is interesting and sad to note that despite the small number of claimed attacks, #ISGS caused many casualties in #BurkinaFaso, #Mali and #Niger during its operations.

6/ Regarding the type of attacks, #ISGS mostly claimed targeted operations against its β€œenemies”. Among the biggest attacks: Akabar, Tongo Tongo, Indelimane, N'Daki and In-Ates. It is noteworthy that the group has conducted six suicide attacks in the area in the past two years.

7/ As for the targets, #ISGS mostly targeted #AQIM in Burkina Faso πŸ‡§πŸ‡« and Mali πŸ‡²πŸ‡±, even more than national military forces and French forces πŸ‡«πŸ‡·. Again, let's keep in mind that the group has only claimed a tiny fraction of the operations it has actually conducted. Cf. @MENASTREAM.

8/ With respect to weapons, the Islamic State did not always provide all the detail in its weekly magazine al-Naba’. From the information gathered though, one can note that #ISGS reportedly used IEDs, machine guns, rockets and SVBIEDs.

9/ Key takeaways:

β€’ Over the past two years, #ISGS has claimed far less attacks than it has actually conducted. Cf. @MENASTREAM.
β€’ It has inflicted many casualties during its operations.
β€’ #AQIM has been the most targeted by the group in Mali πŸ‡²πŸ‡± and Burkina Faso πŸ‡§πŸ‡«.


Mon Apr 26 09:41:35 +0000 2021