AngloSaxonTraditionsHat
@Popehat
Tue Apr 20 00:25:10 +0000 2021

Today I was remembering the time I got into an argument with a client about probability.

Client: Well, if we file the motion, the judge will either grant it or deny it, right?
Me: Right
Client: So there's a 50/50 chance that the judge will grant our motion
/1

/2
Me: No, that's not how probability works.
Client: Yes it is. There are two possible outcomes, so it's 50/50
Me: NO
Client: YES
Me: Look. Tomorrow, either Angelina Jolie will proposition me explicitly, or she won't, right?
Client: Well..
Me: RIGHT?

/3
Client: I guess.
Me: So there are two possibilities. Do you think there is a 50% chance Angelina Jolie is going to proposition me indecently tomorrow?
Client: [very sadly] I guess not

/4 I have neglected to relate this particular client story to my wife

Tue Apr 20 00:28:55 +0000 2021