Thread on the timing of a possible Russian military escalation in Ukraine. The main phase of the exercise in Belarus begins tomorrow and runs until February 20, the same day the Olympics end. It appears we'll see a large naval exercise in the Black Sea until the 19th as well. https://t.co/SxZdEChI29
All of the equipment and troops were supposed to arrive in Belarus by today for the exercise (mostly from the VDV or Eastern Military District), though clearly there are still plenty of Russian units moving towards Ukraine that will likely be temporarily based in Russia. 2/
Russia currently has ~90 or more BTGs near Ukraine with more on the way. It appears they are deploying troops to man equipment prepositioned near the border, and they are moving equipment from the big assembly areas (e.g. Yelnya) to staging points closer to the border. 3/ https://t.co/vGdgv70xIc
Most other important systems we would expect to be deployed before an escalation have also arrived near Ukraine, including S-300V, Buk-M2/3, and Tor-M2 air defense; Krasukha-4 EW systems; 2S7M Malka, TOS-1A, and Smerch MLRS; Redut-2US; and other army and district-level assets. 4/ https://t.co/EpN9bKdGD3
Russia has also deployed a large number of Rosgvardia troops recently near the border, allegedly as part of the Zaslon 2022 exercise. Russia might deploy Rosgvardia troops to enforce greater OPSEC near the border before the final preparations or defend against sabotage. 5/ https://t.co/RCuAsvTmIP
With the 6 Baltic and Northern Fleets ships, Russia has 13 large landing ships in the Black Sea with dozens of landing craft and fast-attack boats. Russia has the capability to conduct a brigade (+) amphibious landing (though 2 reinforced BTGs is more likely). 6/ https://t.co/pnXxzj357C
Russia is also taking steps to deter NATO involvement, including naval exercises in the Mediterranean and with the Pacific Fleet; possibly deploying MiG-31K with Kinzhal to Kaliningrad; Tu-22M3 over Belarus; and Su-35S squadron, 2 S-400 battalions, and Krasukha-4 to Belarus. 7/ https://t.co/6VzGczfqpH
This suggests that Russia has just about all of the necessary pieces in place if it wants to conduct a large-scale military escalation in Ukraine, including deterring NATO involvement, but assumes that Russia is deploying its troops to man prepositioned equipment near Ukraine. 8/
If Russia was planning on a military escalation in Ukraine, the next 2-3 weeks make the most sense. The capabilities are there, the ground in N/NE Ukraine is in better condition, and the Eastern Military District troops will be more proficient after the exercise in Belarus. 9/
Some of the best Russian foreign policy and defense analysts don't believe an escalation is imminent, but instead that it will happen later. Some believe Russia will keep tensions high for the foreseeable future, which Putin mentioned in November. 10/
https://t.co/vSZJnbIL4N https://t.co/gdJ409WdwV
The question is what Russia will do with the forces it has assembled near Ukraine? It can keep the amphibs in the Black Sea for awhile, but other ships will have to return. Russia has >50% its BTGs currently near Ukraine and will possibly reach 60-65% soon. 11/
That likely can't be sustained for months, and the ground will be in a worse condition in March and April. So that likely means an escalation in February-early March, or waiting until the late spring or later. Where will the Eastern Military District units in Belarus go? 12/
Russian officials have said they'll leave Belarus after Feb 20 (I think the S-400 battalions and Su-35S fighters might remain). They could be deployed in Russia near the border, which could possibly include sending the troops home and leaving the equipment behind. 13/
As long as that equipment is near Ukraine, the risk of an escalation will remain high, but if that equipment is sent back to the Far East, the threat will be reduced since it would take several weeks to move it back in the future. The troops can be returned much faster though 14/
If Russia does not escalate over the next month, many NATO countries will assume this was a bluff and will likely increase defense coop with Kyiv. If Russia keeps its greater mil posture in Europe, NATO will likely decide to increase its posture over the mid-term as well. 15/
I'm not sure Russia can keep tensions high for most of 2022 and extract strategic benefits from it. Threats from Russian officials haven't compelled NATO members to make serious concessions yet and Ukrainians are going about their lives as if nothing is happening. 16/
I know people are sick of hearing about an "imminent" Russian invasion for months now, but the Russian military, as of this week/weekend, has the military capabilities to actually conduct a large-scale invasion. So an invasion could occur on days or hours notice. 17/
We shouldn't use "can't" when talking about Russian military options. Mud, weather, Omicron, the Olympics, etc. are all factors but none is determinative of when/how/what the Russian military will do. And achieving surprise may mean acting when the conditions aren't ideal. 18/
Russia hasn't achieved any key strategic goals yet, NATO and Kyiv haven't changed their behavior that frustrated Moscow, and there is little reason to think keeping up tensions will achieve concessions. I think the buildup would be a considered a blunder if Russia backs down. 19/
If Russia does escalate, it would deviate from its pattern from previous uses of force as it would lack the same time-sensitive external catalyst. But much of Russia's current behavior and the buildup have been unprecedented, so Russia's next steps may also be unprecedented. 20/
If true, February 15 is another potentially relevant date. It looks as though Russia will have the strongest naval grouping in the Black Sea since the early 1990s. 21/
https://t.co/3iqA6HQcgE