Leaked CDC slides on delta variant got you concerned?
I find the slides insightful & largely reassuring
Bottom line
Delta variant is a problem
Vaccines prevent vast majority of infections, transmission
And nearly all hospitalizations, deaths
Thread
https://t.co/Du2UVzZZBl
So let's talk about what's in the slides about the delta variant
First, it is really, really contagious
Like more contagious than Ebola, Spanish Flu and probably chicken pox
Really contagious
2/n https://t.co/7SZwciWnwR
Second, it appears to cause more serious disease if you get infected
I've been worried this is the case but certainly not sure
The data here is suggestive but not definitive
So reasonable to say delta probably more severe
3/n https://t.co/FyZEwyYEKO
But the vaccines are working.
Let me repeat, the vaccines are working
80-90% effectiveness against symptomatic infection
90-95% effectiveness against severe disease
That's what the data from other countries say
But what about data from our country??
Glad you asked
4/n https://t.co/WtjJlDXr95
Right now, about 35K vaccinated Americans having breakthrough infections weekly
Sound high?
Actually, probably 300K unvaccinated Americans having infections weekly
And given 50% of Americans are vaccinated
That's a rough vaccine effectiveness of around 88%
Very rough
5/n https://t.co/iB7MCcFrEo
Oh -- and protection against severe infection well above 90%
So yeah, vaccines are working fine
But what about this whole breakthrough infections and spreadability?
Can vaccinated folks with breakthrough spread?
Yes. And this is the bad news
6/9
CDC cites several studies (and I'm aware of even more data) showing
vaccinated folks with breakthrough infections have similar viral loads to unvaccinated folks with infections
These are viral loads, not actual evidence of similar transmission
But a reasonable assumption
7/9 https://t.co/9gHOAcJRQ8
Then CDC has modeling that says universal masking is critically important
But they assume no other behavior change like some folks avoiding large gatherings, etc.
But you know what their model also says would work great?
Near universal vaccinations
8/9
So bottom line?
Yeah, delta variant is bad. Like really bad
Our vaccines are good. Like really good
Breakthrough infections happen
Sometimes they may spread to others
But if enough people get the shot
The pandemic does come to an end
Fin